Analysts have found out whether Ukraine will be able to avoid the Italian script spreading coronavirus



Analysts have found out whether Ukraine will be able to avoid the Italian script spreading coronavirus

Coronavirus is walking through Europe: As of April 1, the pandemic covered all the countries of the continent. But if Italy and Spain do not daily beat the sad records on the number of deaths, the countries of North and East Europe are able to restrain the spread of infection. What awaits Ukraine: the Eastern European miracle or the Western European abyss? The Stopmeasles experts ' team has analyzed the possible scenarios of the situation.

Illustration: Stomkor

On March 31, we first heard a reassuring message from the Czech Republic. According to the Czech Minister of Health, the last day of the month in the country registered only 6.5 percent increase in morbidity.

Ukrainians are pleased to hear this, because the neighboring eastern European countries have much in common with Ukraine. In particular, Poland, Romania, Czech Republic, Slovakia have compared the area, and established transport links with us, and labor migration between countries has already become an important part of our life.

Therefore, experts decided to compare: How spread infection in Ukraine and neighboring states. All statistics and governmental measures are available for analysis.

It is harder to compare the Ukrainian indicators with the data of the northern and eastern neighbours: Russia and Belarus. Statistics about people with CoViD-19 is unreliable and inaccessible, MEDIA nonfree, so the information on the outbreak in these countries actually concealed. Just as the first outbreak of infection in China tried to hide.

For example, in Russia the first death of coronavirus infection registered only on March 26, when the total number of people with illness crossed one thousand. This is a statistical anomaly that is not seen in any country, except Belarus, where people with Coronarusom general supposedly do not die. We can see how the pandemic is rapidly spreading in Russia, but unfortunately, we do not have a history of its beginning.

Johns Hopkins University gave us the idea of how to visually compare the pace of the development of a pandemic in different countries through graphics. At the starting point, scientists took a moment when 100 patients first appeared in the country, which fell ill in the last day. Further graphics are superimposed on a common coordinate system for several countries. The study analyzes the dynamics of a pandemic in several developed countries with a high incidence.

We have determined our criteria, chose the circle of countries and tried to find the place of Ukraine in the coordinate system of world tendencies.

Ukraine at the beginning of the pandemic: possible scenarios

Figure 1. Daily incidence of European countries: the number of new cases as a percentage of the total number of patients. Compares the rate of spread in different countries

Initially, we compared the increase in the incidence per day as a percentage of the total number of patients in the selected countries. This may show the rate of growth of infection. When it equals zero, the spread of infection will cease. It was about this indicator that the Czech health Minister recalled. What happened to us can be seen on the first infographics (Figure 1). For comparison, we chose three groups of countries:

1. The countries of Europe that most suffer from the pandemic of coronared disease: Italy and Spain.

2. A country that is one example of successful dealing with the epidemic without strict quarantine and other restrictions: Sweden.

3. East and Central European countries: Poland, Romania, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary.

Ukraine on all charts is marked with a thick red line. Since we decided to take the moment when in one day the country has registered at least forty new cases, the length of the line to indicate Ukraine is less than the rest. We see only the beginning of the epidemic in our country.

The question arises: how will the next line move? In the direction of Italo-Spanish script or the Swedish?

We hope to none of them. Ukraine currently demonstrates trends, common for Poland, Romania, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary-call them conventionally "East Central European Scenario". All these countries are sandwiched between the upper roof, which is created by the covered pandemic of Spain and Italy, and the ceiling of the relative stability of Sweden. In the "East Central European Scenario" group, there is a notable feature: after the initial increase in the incidence of two weeks, the increase decreased to the level of Swedish, and in the Czech Republic and Poland was even lower than it.

Figure 2. Daily incidence of Eastern European countries: the number of new cases as a percentage of the total number of patients. The rate of spread of infection characterizes the promising trends in Poland and the Czech Republic

What are the common features of Ukraine with its close western neighbors?

On the third chart, you can see two lines that are quickly facing up. They demonstrate an absolute number of new cases of illness in Italy and Spain from the outbreak. The lines of incidence of all other countries are located almost horizontally with moderate growth.

How can we explain these differences? The difference between the groups of countries becomes clear if we recall when the countries began to implement quarantine and other restrictions. There are certain conventions in the definition of a specific date because measures are usually implemented gradually. Yet every country can find a certain "timeline line", after which the actions of Governments became more decisive.

Figure 3. New cases of illness in European countries by days from time when they became more than 40 daily

Italy introduced strict restrictions with a significant delay – only March 12, and this story became instructive for the whole world. Even when the disease began to spread rapidly in February 2020, Italians still did not believe in the seriousness of the situation.

In Venice, the owners of restaurants in early March offered the visitors free aperitifs to fill their institutions. On February 27, when the eleven northern Italian cities were quarantined and 17 patients died from coronative disease, the leader of the ruling Democratic Party, Nikola Tsingazetti, together with a group of students traveled to the epicenter of the epidemic in Lombardy, to Say: "We will not change our habits. Our economy is stronger, so we will take out and partake of aperitifs, coffee and pizza. "

At the end of February in Venice just started introduce quarantine activities Photo: UNN

On the same day, the mayor of Milan, Bepe has expanded the video, where people were hugging, eating in a restaurant and walking through the parks. On the ninth day after the journey, Tsingazetti fell into a coronavirus infection.

According to our estimates, the authorities of Italy have introduced adequate restrictions only on the 15th day after the critical incidence in forty new cases per day. Spain also missed this limit and introduced significant anti-epidemic measures on the eighth day from the critically important beginning of daily growth of morbidity.

Unlike Italy and Spain, Romania declared quarantine nine days prior to the critical limit of the epidemic process, Poland – four days before the limit, the Czech Republic – in two waves in four and two days to the limit. The last wave – when the country introduced also a state of emergency.

The Czech Republic had from the beginning the highest incidence in its group of countries, but has achieved the most significant reduction in the rate of disease spread.

Slovakia introduced strict restrictions on the day when the number of people with the country's illness doubled, but subsequently reached comparable Czech Republic results. Although there were only 21 patients in Slovakia for that day, we should not forget that this is a small country where 5.45 million people live.

Hungary, another small country in the region, began implementing the limitation on 7 March, when there were only seven confirmed patients, and on March 11, when the country had 13 patients with COVID-19, there introduced a state of emergency.

Figure 4. Daily incidence of Eastern European countries: the number of new cases in percentage relative to the total number of patients. The rate of infection spreading

Ukraine has followed the way of Eastern and Central European countries, when the government in advance-13 days before the critical boundary defined by US-introduced quarantine. Subsequently, the constraints gradually suvorìšali, and on March 25, the country introduced extraordinary conditions – when recorded already 113 Ukrainians with the disease.

Figure 5. Number of tests and detected people with CoViD-19 in Ukraine

New restrictions to prevent the spread of coronavirus in a group of central and Eastern European countries

Despite the first promising indicators, Central and Eastern European groups of countries are not in a hurry to abolish anti-epidemic measures. A positive but also a negative model for them is China. This country has dared for the first time to weaken quarantine only two months after its introduced. But soon the Chinese doctors began to register new cases of infection again.

The same thing is in other Asian countries that already seemed to have had an infection. Particularly in Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan.

Therefore, Central and Eastern European countries not only do not hurry to weaken their anti-epidemic measures, but on the contrary – they strengthen them. For example, in Poland on Tuesday, March 31, introduced new restrictions: from now on, even close relatives in public places need to stay at a distance of two meters with each other, except for children, adolescents, persons with disabilities and elderly people. Persons under the age of 18 can not leave the house without parental accompaniment. Closed service establishments, which are not currently closed. Near the ticket offices in the queue should be no more than three people.

The Czech Republic retains restrictions and works on the development of innovative information technologies in order to monitor the contacts of patients and timely introduce anti-epidemic measures. On March 30, the smart quarantine system use in the test mode.

By the way, Ukraine has the opportunity to introduce the same technology, but the actions and statements of the authorities are quite contradictory – the work then begins, then ceases.

Also, they warn against premature optimism in Slovakia and prolong quarantine.

Romania is spreading the strict restrictions regime with the involvement of military formations into new regions.

At present, laboratory tests for the presence of coronavirus in Eastern and Central European countries are considerably inferior to the countries of Western Europe, but now these countries are doing everything to reach more people's testing.

Will Ukraine be held in a group of central and Eastern European countries?

If we weigh on the already existing measures against the spread of coronavirus in Ukraine, it is easy to conclude that they correspond to the scenario of the mentioned Central and Eastern European States. But will Ukraine in this way be able to cope with the tasks?

We will receive answers shortly if the government of Ukraine is to cope with following disturbing challenges:

1. Limited and disordered testing of people for coronavirus at the first signs of the disease. Ukraine has just received a sufficient number of PCR tests, but there remain problems with equipping laboratories and staff training, where these high-precision tests will be made. In particular, in the periphery. Still, some of the laboratories in the regions do not experience PCR testing. Only now the Ministry of Health starts to liquidate these gaps, organizes training and transfers the necessary apparatuses.

Now few people are inadmissible in Ukraine. Despite the promises of the government to cover millions of citizens, there are 300-400 tests daily.

As a citizen to take a test, eloquently showed an example of a deputy Anna Skorokhod, who picked up the coronavirus, made a considerable effort, but could not pass the test according to the MINISTRY's established order. And only on the promptings of friends finally made a test for 4.1 thousand hryvnia in a private clinic. The staff of medical institutions by the telephone gave her contradictory or incorrect advice and instructions, and in the venerable clinic made a inappropriate test.

In Anna Skorokhod discovered Coronarus Photo: screen

2. Equipment, the State of readiness of medical institutions and the preparation of medical workers, in particular, in the regions of Ukraine, do not meet the desired level. Recently, we have shown how the medics behaved during the events in the Monopriska Ternopil region: Hospital workers after the first contact with an infected husband were removed from providing medical care to people, and the pathologists did not know what to do with the body The deceased patient. The medical institution is extremely lacking in equipment, drugs, remedies for physicians and tests for coronavirus.

3. The unpreparedness of a large part of people adhere to quarantine and social distance, the inability of law enforcement agencies to enforce these measures. Unfortunately, many Ukrainian citizens are lightly treated with government activities and violate compulsory self-isolation and observacìï regimes.

The MEDIA regularly report people who have escaped from their observacìï and violate the regime while exposing others to the risk of infection. For example, Observacìû in Ukraine left the repatriates from Vietnam and Bali.

National Guard near the hotel ''Kozatskiy'' Photo: Stopkor

It should be noted that in Kiev has already created a center for control of observance of self-isolation, to whose activities are attracted by local authorities, police, doctors. But how to react to these violations in the regions of Ukraine, is difficult to predict. In particular, we are talking about the western areas, where there are many workers who returned from Europe and conceal their state and hiding from medical and law enforcement officers.

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